The long-awaited and overdue parliamentary Russia Report, published by the Intelligence & Security Committee today (ISC) was as eagerly awaited by the Westminster Russia Forum (WRF), our board and members as any other in the Russia watcher community.
Russia has rarely been far from the headlines in recent years; from the Skripal poisoning to Ukraine, Syria and allegations of nefarious Russian meddling around the world, the overarching narrative of East-West relations has almost universally been framed in a negative light – in this response, we will assess the report and its conclusions but more importantly highlight our thoughts as to the promotion and resumption of better ties between the peoples of the United Kingdom and Russian Federation.
A Background to the Russia Report
The long vaunted Russia Report has now been released and we welcome this move in its entirety.
The WRF has always called for open and transparent dialogue and to be frank many of the issues could happily have been ‘put to bed’ had the report been published in December 2019. The reasoning as to its delay are unclear and the government of the day has dragged its feet in releasing the report, which has led to wild speculation as to what would emerge.
The 50 page report looked specifically at alleged Russian interference into the UK democracy, assassinations, cyber crime and hacking as well as Russia’s ability to influence the UK and geopolitics as a whole.
Launched by the ISC committee today under the newly appointed Dr Julian Lewis MP, the report was authored by the committee but with direct input from the breadth of the UK’s intelligence community including MI5, SIS, GCHQ, MOD Military Intelligence, the National Crime Agency and other bodies. The report also took evidence from a number of Moscow-critical external experts including Edward Lucas, Anne Applebaum and William Browder – all of which are noted for their hostile views towards Russia. Our own views on the partiality of external expertise will be covered later.
Key Findings of the Russia Report
The full report can be found here but it is worth recapping the salient conclusions of the ISC, which are that:
· The UK Government ‘took its eye off the ball’ and failed to respond to emerging threats from Moscow over a number of years
· ISC noted that no one in government sought to safeguard the electoral process from external interference
· ‘Russian Money’ is now so pervasive that amounts to a ‘new normal’
· Russia has a highly advanced cyber, intelligence, military capacity to disrupt western states, which despite a weakened economy remain a clear threat to the democratic life of western nations
· The government avoided looking into potential Brexit vote meddling – the ISC was unable to determine attempted influence operations in 2016 and evidence amounted to ‘six lines of text’
· Evidence into the Brexit referendum was not ‘actively looked into’
· Some evidence and open source commentary suggesting Russia undertook an influence operation in the 2014 Scottish referendum
· More coordination is needed and a lead required to counter overseas interference
· Huge amounts of tier-1 investors funds have been cleared through the UK with party political donations and saturation to all sectors of the economy – including funds from those from those close to Vladimir Putin
· Russian funds have also helped ‘enablers’ such as charities, PR firms, cultural bodies and others
· A number of members of the House of Lords have Russian business interests and greater scrutiny is needed
· Russian cyber attacks pose an urgent threat to the UK
· UK was slow to understand and respond to the Russian threat
The Russian Response
Moscow has been quick to distance itself from the findings of the report and to deny all accusations – no direct evidence has been provided to prove or disprove Russian state ‘interference’ into the UK’s affairs.
The 2016 EU Referendum
The key conclusion of the report states that the UK was too slow to respond to a potential state threat.
We believe that in light of this report it would be favorable to undertake a root and core analysis of any alleged claim of interference into the Brexit vote – the reason being is that it will set aside future allegations and allow us to move ahead to more fruitful ties.
There is much that binds our nations – dealing with the allegations methodically, equitably and with a range of voices will allow us to dispel or prove all questions about alleged interference into the Brexit vote.
The WRF Response & Recommendations for Improved Ties – The Smokeless Gun
On a near-daily basis we have seen the online community, media and a majority of the political establishment attacking anyone that calls for better relations between our two nations. This is fundamentally wrong and does a disservice to the Russian community in the UK.
With direct mention to the report, we welcome the publishing of this report and call for a further future investigation into the Brexit allegations to set aside a prevailing and negative narrative amongst the mainstream media and political elite.
The report is solid, well written and highlights, in all honesty, a roadmap to protect the integrity of our national political life – we applaud the great work of our intelligence services and the conclusion of a need for a multi-agency approach to outside interference would do us well moving ahead.
The report lacks any direct evidence of Russian evidence but for many this will not be enough. The narrative will continue to be that Russia is an inherently negative influence – we see a far more positive relationship which thousands of hard-working Russians live and work in the UK, a growing technocratic relationship, improving economic ties and established societal ties. The problem with these incessant allegations is that it muddies the waters of what could be a good relationship between our peoples. With Britain exiting the EU we need trade ties – we suggest that we examine and explore any outstanding questions, set aside security and strategic ties for now and focus on what we can achieve to further develop a strong base.
With so many intelligence agencies inputting into the report, If there is any evidence of democratic interference then this report would have highlighted that evidence, albeit in a redacted manner – for some in our media and political elite there will never be any doubt that Russia has interfered however what this report has simply done is clearly identified Russia as a geopolitical adversary and brought together many of the things that we already suspected.
Whilst we fully support and respect the role and work of the professional military, security and intelligence professionals and support their conclusions we would absolutely call to question the partiality of the ‘usual suspects’ that gave incidental evidence. All are known critics of the Kremlin, have books to sell and are well-linked with the political elite. What is needed is a broader range of voices but what is important to note is that even with these discerning voices, very little if any evidence to note was uncovered. Official report may often show a bias based upon the report authors and expertise – a Europe wide academic university collaboration could well provide an alternative to future reports.
The findings were generic at best but what has come out is an expose of failings to identify and respond to a growing alleged threat as well as a report which simply lists in detail the known negatives of our ties from the previous 5 years. The report provides a good roadmap to safeguard the UK and joined up multi-agency approaches to mitigating external threats can only be welcomed.
There was no smoking gun or evidence provided to substantiate the often wild claims of Moscow’s interference and as such our overall conclusion is that of indifference – what is needed is a more mature approach to our relations without the hysteria. What many of the Russia detractors may dislike is that there is a silent majority out there in the UK who are in support of better ties or are indifferent – business, culture and people will find a way to cooperate and despite the ‘findings’ of author-experts the cold war ended in 1991.
Our final recommendation – get past the media, twitter and political hysteria, be cautious and learn the lessons and let’s stop looking for scapegoats, no real evidence of interference has yet been found.
Trust in our politicians and political & media elite is at an all-time low and it is easy to see why.
Nicholas Cobb – Chairman, Westminster Russia Forum
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