The post WRF Appoint a University Outreach Officer appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

Recently, The WRF held an event on Free trade vs. Sanctions – opportunities for the UK and Russia, with guest speaker Mark Littlewood, Director of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), the well-known and highly respected economic think-tank based in Westminster. There were essentially two aspects of the sanctions against Russia that were discussed, the economic impact on both Russia and the UK, and the effectiveness of the sanctions in achieving their desired political aims and objectives.The talk largely centred around the first aspect of said sanctions, naturally as the IEA is an economic think-tank, not a political interest group. Regardless of where one stands in their position against the current sanctions against Russia, there is broad consensus around how the UK will need to forge new free trade relationship with countries around the world once we leave the EU, countries are already queuing up to do a deal with the UK. IEA research presented at the discussion estimated there is £5 billion in untapped growth from a Russia-UK trading relationship that could happen post-Brexit.

Despite a combination of falling oil prices, internal structural limitations as well as the international sanctions, according to the country’s Ministry of Economic Development it stills expects to see modest growth for 2017, although Russia’s Central Bank is less optimistic. Despite this, Russia is one of the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas, and is also a top exporter of metals, with a diverse range of industries and a strong agricultural sector. There are lots of reasons to remain bullish about Russia’s economic potential going forward.

According to the IEA, sanctions have had a minimum to moderate impact on Russia’s economy. Trade between the UK and Russia has declined by 50% between 2014-16 as a result, this breaks down to approximately 20% in services and 13% in goods. Across the EU, Brussels-imposed sanctions have had a much more detrimental effect on their own members’ economies, particularly those of Central and Eastern Europe – Russia is a major export market for countries such Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic States. For example, Hungary’s Foreign Minister said in January that his country lost $6.5 billion in export opportunities.

In terms of the effectiveness of the Brussels-imposed sanctions, that the UK is free to abandon its commitment to once we Brexit, there seems to be little economic or even political evidence that they have had any impact on the Kremlin’s foreign policy or the country’s internal politics. In fact, a case can be made that the sanctions have only served to strengthen support for the Russia’s current governments, and exacerbate the skeptical attitudes of many ordinary Russians towards the outside world, including the UK. The UK is not Hungary or Poland of course, and we have minimal economic exposure or connectivity with Russia with compared with many other countries around the world. We must look at the potential value of the trade with Russia that the UK has essentially sacrificed largely but not entirely at the behest of Brussels, against what unelected bureaucrats, hellbent on creating a European super-state like to present as an external bogeyman to expedite that process – Russia. This approach has already begun to unravel, due to the economic damage it is causing many of the EU’s own members, with national politicians feeling the wrath of their electorates, fueled by furious exporters and business owners, demanding why their having to sack their employees and close their operations down.

We must ask policy and decision makers, are these sanctions effective in achieving the political goals their set out to achieve? Are these goals in the UK’s national interest and why are they in the UK’s national interest? Are there other ways to achieve said goals, without sacrificing what could be one of the greatest trading opportunities for our country in quite literally generations, once we leave the cloisters of the EU and embrace the world.

The post Sanctions Cut Both Ways – Is it Time to Change our Approach to Sanctions? appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

Westminster Russia Forum has a wide supporter base with members from the LGBT community – we will continue to monitor the situation and raise objections with the right authorities.

We fully support the UK Government’s protestations on this matter as well as supporting efforts by Moscow to curtail such abuses.

Nicholas Cobb – Chairman – Westminster Russia Forum

The post Westminster Russia Forum Response to Alleged LGBT Rights Abuses in Chechnya appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

As visitors to London’s Science Museum marvel at the Russian Soyuz space capsule that carried Major Tim Peake to the International Space Station ISS two well informed speakers held out prospects for change in UK-Russian trade relations to WRF meetings in Westminster.

Mark Littlewood, the Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs and Philip Owen, Director of Volga Trader both found appreciative audiences. Mark spoke on April 19th on Free trade vs. Sanctions – opportunities for the UK and Russia post-Brexit’ . Philip spoke a week later on “How to do it – The Practicalities of Trade and Investment in Russia”.

With a UK general election due to elect a government on 8^th June Mark predicted a victory for the Conservatives with Theresa May capturing an increased majority. He also predicted an opportunity for change in relations with Russia.

“Sanctions could be dropped. Engagement is to be preferred to a return to the Cold War”, he told the audience in the Morpeth Arms on Millbank across the Thames from MI6 headquarters.

Sanctions, he explained, were not just restricting London’s ability as an international financial centre to deal with Russia but also hurting Northern Ireland cheese exports (Russia used to be their top market).

He cited the possibility of Russian demand for British agricultural products alone being able to meet the bill for BREXIT. “Sounds like a win to me,” he quipped.

Philip, speaking in another Westminster venue, told his audience that sanctions were helping investment into Russia because international manufacturers had realised that produce from a factory in Russia was protected by the state with tariffs on competing products imported from abroad, even if they were not sanctioned. He cited Nestle as an example with eight factories in Russia, one of which produced instant coffee from ground coffee beans while its competitors suffered high customs duty on their imported coffee.

Apart from grains, Philip said import substitution success for pork and poultry were created through a drop in demand.

The biggest attraction for foreign investors in Russia was the significant drop in the rouble, which has lost over 40% of its value against the dollar since 2014, said Philip pointing out that this effective devaluation was more due to the collapsing world oil price than sanctions.

“Credit is expensive in Russia,” Philip said and with the Bank of England keeping British banks lending interest rates at an all-time low there was never a better time for British investors to raise funds to acquire performing assets in Russia, he said.

Volga Technology and Trading Ltd with offices in Saratov Russia and headquartered in Bridgend, Wales offers support for direct investment as well as guidance on market entry, bespoke market research and finding buyers for Russian businesses.

The post UK- Russia Business Relations – Get Ready for Change… appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

SCRSS members only.

Tuesday 9 May 2017, 11.00
Event: Victory Day at the Soviet War Memorial

Act of Remembrance at the Soviet War Memorial, London, to mark the 72nd anniversary of the Allied Victory over Fascism. The ceremony begins at 11.00 and lasts approximately one hour. Standard bearers and wreath-layers should contact the Honorary Secretary of the Soviet Memorial Trust Fund (SMTF) on [email protected] for more information. All other participants should arrive by 10.45. Please note: due to limited parking in the area, please use public transport where possible. Only limited seating is available (intended primarily for veterans, older participants and organisations laying wreaths).

The post Support the WRF @ the Soviet War Memorial – Tuesday 9th appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

At our recent talk we raised over £150 in funds!

For more information please visit: http://warmedheart.org.uk/

To Donate Please Visit: https://www.justgiving.com/warmedheart

The post WRF is Pleased to Support Warmed Heart – Helping Children with Disabilities appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

UK-Russia Trade in Good & Services

In accordance with British statistics in 2016 Russia took the 25^th place in trade with Britain, 24^th – in export and 23^rd – in import. In 2016 trade turnover between the two countries has fallen down by 13,3% to 9,1 billion US dollars:

–  export to Russia  – 3,5 bln.USD (decreased by 10,2%);

–  import from Russia – 5,6 bln.USD (fallen by 15,1%).

UK Trade in goods with Russia

(mln.USD)

(mln.GBP)

Source: www.uktradeinfo.com (01.03.2017)

Average rate in  2016: 1 GBP=1,36 USD

Average rate in  2015: 1 GBP=1,53 USD

UK Trade in services with Russia

(in accordance with Russian statistics)

(mln.USD)

Source: The Bank of Russia (01.03.2017)

In 9 month 2016 trade turnover in services between Britain and Russia has fallen by 20,8% to 4,8 bln.USD. Exports in services reduced by 12% to 2 bln.USD, services imports declined by 26% to 2,8 bln.USD. And the UK has a trade deficit of 796,1 mln.USD in servises with Russia.

UK sector trade in goods with Russia in 2015-2016

Imports

Source: UKtradeinfo

Exports

Source: UKtradeinfo

UK sector trade in services with Russia in 2014-2015

Source: Pink Book 2017

The post Official UK – Russia Trade Figures 2015-2016 appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

RussianFocus the new business magazine of the Westminster Russia Forum will launch after the British election and the government and its policies become clear. The first issue is now tentatively scheduled for July/August with the second issue slated for September/October.

The Cover story on the launch issue will be on oil giant Rosneft and a 24-page section, the regional focus, will be on Vladivostok and Primorye Krai.

The Publishing Editor, John Bonar is confident that with a 15,000 print run the English language magazine, with over 100 pages, will break the mould on Russian oriented publications in the UK.

John is one of the deputy chairmen of the Westminster Russia Forum. He is an experienced business journalist and editor. He has been associated with Russia since 1993.

“We are distributing through corporate locations in London, reaching business travellers on trains and planes and getting a message over to British business that Russia is the BRIC on our doorstep. After BREXIT Russia is potentially the largest unexploited market for the UK,” he said in a statement.

“The magazine will be financed through commercial advertising and sponsorship,” Bonar added.

The post Magazine Announcement – WRF’s Russian Focus to be Launched Post Election appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.

WITNESS STATEMENT – VISIT TO CRIMEA 2017 

SUSSMAN – 27th March 2017

I Nigel Sussman will say as follows:

I was invited by A Just Russia party to attend an International Conference “The 100th Anniversary of the Russian Revolution and Contemporary Socialism” in Saint Petersburg, Russia on 17th – 18th March 2017 to which I attended, this was public dialogue, jointly solving current social and political issues and touched on the topic of growing social inequalities, the huge income gap of the poor and ultra-rich, that has concentrated power in the hands of a small elite of individuals and corporations

I had also been invited along with some of the other international delegates from Brazil, Serbia, Montenegro and Czech Republic (full list below) to attend a familiarisation tour of the Republic of Crimea as an independent international witness from the 19th – 21st March 2017 (agenda below).

I must start by thanking my hosts not just for their hospitality which was exemplary, but for their dedication and professionalism in their impartiality. At no time did they attempt to influence me with their own view or propaganda and this was so exceptional that I must applaud them for their integrity.

We arrived at Simferopol Airport to begin the tour and were taken by minibus to Yalta and the Lividia Palace. This was a journey of approximately 1 hour, I confess to falling asleep for the first part of the journey, but woke up just as we crossed the Crimean Mountains to the Black Sea. Here the weather improved as we entered a subtropical climate although the wind remained strong. We continued through winding single lane roads, until we arrived in Yalta. Once there we toured the Lividia Palace, where there is preserved, the meeting place of Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin who met at the end of the Second World War to shape a post-war peace and to give self-determination to the liberated peoples of post-Nazi Europe.

I should note at this point; that it was Winston Churchill who, as a member of The Free Trade League, saw free trade as a mechanism for industrial peace and said “Broad economic principles always in the end defeat the sharp devices of expediency”.

MEETING THE PEOPLE:  From there we went for a walk along the picturesque embankment, often referred to as the Crimean Riviera, where we all met and talked with local residents. I found all the people I met to be sincere, kind and genuinely open, they all with, just one exception (a man who was reticent in his answers), made it plain that they supported rejoining the Russian Federation for the following reasons:

1. They have always considered Russia as their “Motherland”.
2. They felt they were treated as second and third class citizens under Ukraine rule.
3. There was a lack of investment in the Region.
4. In 2014 Ukrainian authorities revoked a law that gave legal grounds for regional use of minority languages, including Russian. This appears to be the “straw that broke the camel’s back”. Given that 84% of the population speak Russian this was received as more than just an error of statecraft. I personally would be keen to understand more about how this arose.
5. The referendum was conducted in good faith and even though there were a few troops at administrative buildings, there were none at polling stations; people felt no pressure was applied on voters.
6. Perhaps most important of all, they felt they now had hope for a brighter future.

MEETING THE OFFICIALS: The next day we attended the Public Chamber of the Republic of Crimea where we first met with the Human Rights Ombudswoman. She was clearly highly professional and impressed me with her deep knowledge of her brief and was very much hands on. She informed us that she had 4,000 reports per year; however it soon became clear that this referred to Social and Pension rights rather than what we would call human rights in the West. Some of my fellow witnesses raised the issue of detainees and disappearances, but she replied that no Government has full control over these issues and that they were significantly less in Crimea than in other countries. I looked up disappearances in the UK when I returned and was alarmed to discover 135,382 separate individuals were recorded as missing in the UK in 2016; an average of 370 people per day!

Our next meeting was with Remzi Ilyasov, the Deputy Chairman of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea. He was quick to point out that he wasn’t claiming everything was perfect in Crimea, but was travelling in the right direction. When asked what motivated his old colleagues in the Ukraine; he replied that their decisions had been taken alone without consultation. We discussed the impact of the blockades on Crimea, particularly potential impact on 2.5 million people that could have led to a humanitarian crisis and only averted by Russia coming to their aid. It was clear that Crimea seeks the opportunity to move forward, with that I can only agree.

We left the Council Offices to attend a meeting with Hadji Ablaev, the Mufti of Crimean Muslims. Here we needed triple translation into English. There was a lot of focus on the impact of IS but we were assured that Muslims were not as impacted due to the fact that integration is much more successful in Crimea than many other places. I came away with the feeling that their level integration would be the envy of the West. It was also clear that the Mufti supported the joining of Crimea with the Russia Federation.

We left for the Crimean Tatar University to meet the Black Sea Association of International Cooperation and representatives of national communities including Ukrainian and Jewish community leaders. We discussed interracial efforts and it was clear that Crimea takes this seriously and is continuing to invest in this area, especially around education and language. We continued to discuss the economic future for Crimea and there are fantastic opportunities for future investment once the sanctions are removed. It was also noted that sanctions prevent individuals of Crimea from free communication. The different representatives of national communities in Crimea are facing artificial difficulties because of the sanctions imposed by the Western countries when they are going to visit their historical Motherland (Ukraine, Israel, Greece, and Bulgaria) 

CONCLUSION:

1. Crimea voted in 2014 to reunify with the Russian Federation, the turnout was 83.1% and those in favour were 97%. It should be noted that Crimea has had previous referendums: in 1991 the people of Crimea took part in one that proclaimed the region an Autonomous Republic within the Soviet Union, with 93.3% of the voters supporting the move.
2. A poll conducted by the Crimean Institute of Political and Social Research in 2014 found that 77% of respondents planned to vote for “reunification with Russia”, and 97% assessed the current situation in Ukraine as negative.
3. I personally spoke with approximately 40 Crimeans, some as part of the official tour and some on my own initiative; I would have interacted with more except for the language barrier. Only two people out of the 40 were reticent in their response and even then they were not entirely negative. My own “unscientific” polling suggests 95% were in favour of Crimea joining the Russian Federation.
4. I am confident that if the Referendum was run tomorrow, we would see a similar result. The circumstances that triggered the result have not changed and since then Ukraine has implemented electricity, food and water blockades that would have led to a humanitarian crisis and it is only due to Russia’s support that this has been averted. This issue is felt keenly by the population.
5. It is clear that the Referendum was a demonstration of the people’s “Right of Self Determination” as enshrined in UN principles. Further the Crimean referendum followed all international-law, the UN charter, and the precedent established by Kosovo’s NATO-prodded annexation from Serbia. Russian soldiers did not intervene in the events connected with Referendum and Proclamation of the Crimea Independence, as was witnessed by 150 international observers, with members of the parliaments of the countries of Western and Eastern Europe, and the European Parliament among them. Most of them reported a peaceful climate in the region and declared the voting process legitimate.
6. Crimea is now caught up in the sanctions on Russia and so the resolution of their circumstances would appear to be tied up with lifting sanctions on Russia.
7. The countries that imposed sanctions on Russia (I suggest they were wrong to do so in the first place) have stated that they will lift them subject to Russia complying with its obligations under the Minsk II Agreement.
8. The Minsk II Agreement has 12 clauses and as far as I am able to determine Russia has complied with all the terms under its direct control and shown a willingness to continue to do so. It is not Russia that is fighting in Ukraine but Ukraine separatists, as The Organisation for Security and Cooperation that is monitoring the situation notes; a relative decrease in ceasefire violations and states it is up to both sides to stop fighting.
9. Given the above, it is clear that those countries imposing sanctions must now honour their agreement to lift sanctions and to do so immediately

Finally, before flying home, we attended a press conference at the INA “Russia Today” Simferopol studio.

POSTSCRIPT:

Since my return from the visit, I posted a few photographs only, with no commentary, of my trip on social media, only to be attacked by what I can best call “Keyboard Warriors”. They condemned my visit without even knowing the reason for my visit or the conclusions that I had reached.

The truth has always been difficult to establish, even at the best of times. In a world of mainstream media bias, information wars and fake news, the search is made even more difficult. I am reminded of the lesson that a ball in the distance can appear white (○) from one persons perspective; and yet from the opposite direction it can appear black (●), it is only from the side that you can tell that the ball is both black and white (◐). To that end, I am conscious that I have not had access to the Ukraine perspective and my colleagues and I have expressed a willingness to carry out a similar witness exercise with the permission of the Kiev government.

It should also be noted that there are geopolitical forces at work here; interference in Ukraine by the US & EU has led directly to this situation and I have sympathy for Ukraine who appear to have been unable to withstand the pressures applied to them. Far from blaming Russia and Ukraine, it is the US and EU that should be held accountable for their actions.

In the much smaller world we all live in and especially as we are now in the 21st century, it is incumbent on leaders everywhere to take note of the wishes of the ordinary people that get caught up in these activities.

What should also concern us all, is that despite the rise of the internet and social media tools, the art of philosophical dialogue seems to have diminished in the world, the resolution of disputes should not be through sanctions which only entrenches positions, but through dialogue and an open mind.

Nigel Sussman

…………………………………………….

AGENDA – FAMILIARIZATION TOUR TO THE REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA:

19 MARCH (Sunday)

12:15 Arrival to Simferopol from St. Petersburg

13:00-16:00 Transfer to Sevastopol; excursion in the State Historical and Archaeological Museum- Preserve “Tauric Chersonese”

16:00-19:00 Transfer to Yalta, excursion in the Livadia Palace

20 MARCH (Monday)

Meeting with members of the Black Sea Association for International Cooperation and community leaders

Meeting with hadji Emiraly Ablaev, Mufti of Crimean Muslims and Lazarus, Metropolitan of Simferopol and Crimea

Meeting with Chairman of the State Council of Crimea Vladimir A. Konstantinov

Meeting with Ombudsman of the Republic of Crimea Liudmila E. Lubina

21 MARCH (Tuesday) Page 5 of 5

LIST OF INTERATIONAL WITNESSES:

GREAT BRITAIN, Nigel SUSSMAN – Chairman, UKIP Ilford Branch

GREAT BRITAIN, Richard WOOD – member of UKIP

BRAZIL, Rodrigo do VAL FERREIRA – representative of the Landless Workers Movement in Asia and Eastern Europe

SERBIA, Srdja TRIFKOVIC – Professor of International Relations, University of Banja Luka, BiH

MONTENEGRO, Stefan ĐUKIC – director of the Movement for the neutrality of Montenegro

CZECH REPUBLIC, Jaroslav HOLIK – member of the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic

CZECH REPUBLIC, Alexander GEGALCIJ – Chairman of the International foundation “Russian award”

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC, Irina KARAMUSHKINA – member of the Political Council of the Social Democratic party of the Kyrgyz Republic; deputy of Zhogorku Kenesh (one chamber parliament) of the Kyrgyz Republic

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC, Marat AMANKULOV – member of the Political Council of the Social Democratic party of the Kyrgyz Republic; deputy of Zhogorku Kenesh (one chamber parliament) of the Kyrgyz Republic; Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Transport, communication, Architecture and Construction of the Kyrgyz Republic

SERBIA, Milovan BOJIC – member of the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia

SERBIA, Dubravko BOJIC – member of the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia

SERBIA, Aleksandar SESELJ – member of the Presidium of the Serbian Radical Party

RUSSIA, Oleg NILOV – member of the Presidium of the Central Council of the Political Party A JUST RUSSIA, deputy Leader of the Party’s State Duma faction; member of the SD Committee on Transport and Construction

RUSSIA, Mikhail BRYACHAK – member of the Presidium of the Central Council of the Political Party A JUST RUSSIA, Chairman of the Council of Deputies of the Political Party A JUST RUSSIA

RUSSIA, Victoria BILAN – Chairwoman of the Council of the regional office of the Political Party A JUST RUSSIA in the Republic of Crimea, a member of the Central Council of the Political Party A JUST RUSSIA

The post WITNESS STATEMENT – VISIT TO CRIMEA 2017 – NIGEL SUSSMAN appeared first on Westminster Russia Forum.